The Macro Blog
Our most recent publications:
Three big US banks release $5bn in loan loss reserves in sign of optimism… sad and scary
JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have released a total of more than $5bn of pandemic-era loan loss reserves in a sign of optimism for the economic outlook even as the US reels from the latest wave of Covid-19. We put a short position in banks in our GTO (...
Pfizer temporarily reduces European deliveries of vaccine
Pfizer has confirmed it will temporarily reduce deliveries to Europe of its COVID-19 vaccine while it upgrades production capacity to 2 billion vaccine doses per year... Interesting timing...
Fears of Japan blackouts as power prices hit record highs and now introduces cap electricity prices at 200Yen/KWH…
Powell mentioned yesterday that nothing to see about inflation... OK! The BOJ consistently reports low CPI... Ok! Japan introduces cap electricity prices at 200Yen/KWH when this price on the Japan Power Exchanche reached 246Yen/KWH on Tuesday... Just for information,...
US blacklists Xiaomi and Cnooc, and again, Chinese investors will jump on this opportunity to buy!!!
Trump continue his sad game. Imagine another country doing the same process with US listed company with strong US Army ties... More than 50 stocks from the S&P500 would be banned from GE to GM, including Google, MSFT, etc... Anyway, that's carry volatility in our...
Chip Shortage Will Continue to Disrupt Auto Production in China… and not only!!!
The lingering chip supply crunch could lead to a 5% year-on-year decline in production volumes for some carmakers in the first quarter this year, said UBS auto analyst Gong Min. We highlighted that the supply chain disruption due to the Trade war initiated in 2018 and...
Italy’s government in crisis as Renzi ministers resign … The Eurozone is in destruction mode…
Conte may now need to seek permission from Mattarella to attempt to form a new government without lawmakers from Renzi’s party. Renzi was integral in pushing the center-left Democratic Party (PD) into coalition with the Five Star Movement in 2019, allowing Conte to...
Brazilian partner of Sinovac earlier said CoronaVac was 50% effective … And the President of Sinopharm resigned today…
This is not good news. The mistrust is spreading fast and this vaccine was granted 70/75% effective... In addition, the CEO of Sinopharm (the sole labo authorized by Chinese authorities to sell its vaccine) resigned today, for personal reasons... All countries are ou...
ECB ready to change Inflation calculation… Like the RBNZ and others!!!
Very important comments from Lagarde relayed by Reuters : 13-Jan-2021 10:33:14 - REUTERS NEXT-ECB'S LAGARDE SAYS WANT TO ARRIVE AT DEGREE TO CLARITY, PREDICTABILITY WITH DEFINITION OF INFLATION TARGET 13-Jan-2021 10:34:09 - REUTERS NEXT-ECB'S LAGARDE SAYS NEED TO...
After Covid, Plane Makers Are Even More Dependent on China… Keep this in mind if retaliation from China in the future
China’s own aerospace ambitions and the geopolitical tensions that surround them could make it a turbulent ride. Traffic is 8% higher than a year ago, data by Oliver Wyman’s PlaneStats show. In the U.S. and Europe, it is still down 41% and 68%, respectively. With...
Just 1%+ 10Y Yield could crack the tech bubble – Tech play is a duration play (see the great chart)
Now, due to the super low level of rates, a tiny bump could have catastrophic effects. As expressed in a previous post, we have a new correlation between the risky assets and Treasuries...
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