The Macro Blog
Our most recent publications:
6-month consequences of COVID-19 in patients discharged from hospital: Lancet…
11 million people are in containment in China as of today, pandemic figures in the USA are skyrocketing and the EU is managing logistical issues. As written in the Lancet report, at 6 months after acute infection, COVID-19 survivors were mainly troubled with fatigue...
Japan finds new COVID virus strain, distinct from UK and Africa types
This brings to 34 the number of confirmed infections from a variant strain in Japan. Of these, three are cases in which the person did not arrive from overseas, including two cases of the U.K. strain found on Sunday. This is not a real issue till the vaccines are...
As Nepal faces political turmoil, China and India are scrambling. The water war is real.
Perhaps the first real expression of the water war. Nepal represents the sources of the main rivers in China and India. Whole Nepal is a part of the Ganga Basin and it is estimated that approximately 70% of dry season flow and 40% of the annual flow of the Ganga River...
Inflationary: Biden to unveil trillions in pandemic economic relief spending next week
This announcement will be key for the US Treasuries and the USD. i address this point in my Outlook as inflationary. Biden wants to directly serve the cash to households. This action could ignite a sharp bounce of M2 velocity (which crashed last year...). The nominal...
First retaliation from China : New Rules Amp Up Pressure on U.S. Businesses
The new rules are designed to block any foreign restriction that “unjustifiably prohibits” Chinese citizens or companies from “engaging in normal economic, trade and related activities with a third state or its citizens,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The...
Trump is trying to move the chaos from the Capitol into US/China relation
For years, I have written in my posts and outlooks my visions of the Chinese policy regarding Hong Kong and Taïwan. The box of Hong Kong is tick and now China is looking to Taïwan. Xi Jinping, on January 1st, transferred to control of the PLA from the State Council to...
Tks to the NYSE! Time to reconsider Chinese Telecom stocks
Since NYSE’s first delisting announcement on Jan 1, Chinese investors have been adamant buyers. Mainland holdings under Connect in China Mobile Ltd, China Telecom Corp Ltd, and China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd, have jumped 37%, 28%, and 41%, respectively. If you believe...
Carmakers hit by semiconductor shortage… Watch out Taiwan
Our specificity at GATE Advisory is to link Geopolitics and investments. As mentioned in our Outlook 2021, the Global Supply Chain already imploded in 2018, due to US Tariffs, and this move was accelerated and amplified by the current pandemic. Volkswagen said last...
Wake up! Dollar is up and the US 10Y is down… Just the opposite of the most extreme positionning.
House of cards for some, the Lemming effect for your scribe. Fundamentally everybody we speak to remains a dollar bear. This trade has worked well ever since the Fed March panic and the long term logic remains intact. The DXY is basically trading at mid December...
Vaccine mistrust among medics sparks alarm
As I pointed out in 2020, in my outlook and beginning of this month, we know what are these vaccines but politicians are not in hurry to try, and more importantly, neither the heath staffs around the globe... In the US, a survey released last month by the Kaiser...
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