The Macro Blog
Our most recent publications:
Technos, a duration play and FCF issues in higher rates environment
Briefly, these two charts demonstrate the sensitivity of the FCF yield to any rate hike. In addition, the correlation between the NASDAQ and the US 10Y Treasury (inverted if you consider the yield) is highlighting the duration play. I am short US 10Y (target 1.25%)...
Insurrection Failed (paving the way for an impeachment?) and US Democracy is still up and running!
Trump will be accountable for this disorder and the people who died during this coup. Numerous Republican parliamentarians are distancing from Trump, even Mike Pence. The Republicans lost the Senate and now, the situation in Congress is tricky due to the thin majority...
The steepening of the US curve is paving the way?
Now, the steepening of the US curve is back to the Trump election day level. Just bear in mind that the S&P500 is up by 78.7% from this date... Good to know... A bear steepening could be devastating for asset allocations. If you add the acceleration of the...
Vaccine delays risk more than halving global growth, World Bank warns
I pointed out many times the danger around the gap of temporality between what the markets priced and the reality. It seems that the markets are thinking to be immune... All around the world, production and logistic issues are joining the mistrust regarding vaccines....
Risk of False Results with the Curative SARS-Cov-2 Test for COVID-19: FDA Safety Communication
The FDA, after the WHO, is warning false results from Covid tests... Not the right timing when Governments (populists one in first) are all-in with vaccines. Billions would have been more efficient in new generation of tests and treatments. Health policies are close...
Buy Chinese Telcos. NYSE Backflips on Plan to Delist Chinese Telecom Giants
In a previous post, I mentioned to catch the 3 Chinese telco giants on the last sales movements of yesterday. In the end, these delisting would not be a big deal due to the outstanding local market and the 5G. Now the NYSE said that is a no plan to delist the 3 giants...
What are really these vaccines??? U.S. could inject half of each doses to ramp up vaccinations…
The mistrust about vaccines is important and spreading fast. Credibility is key and this weekend was catastrophic: 1 - the U.K. proposes to mix vaccines 2 - the U.K. postpones the second shot when the vaccine was created and validated with 2 shots and 3 weeks between...
New Chinese defense law gives direct full power to Xi Jinping upon the PLA
When Ted Cruz and his little group of GOP senator fellows try to postpone the Biden election ( they should fail) and China treats the USA of retaliation after the delisting of 3 Chinese companies, Xi Jinping is massively increasing his power. The new defense law...
Ohio Gov: 60% of nursing home staff elected not to take COVID-19 vaccine – another topic addressed in my outlook 2021
Mistrust about vaccines is spreading fast... I pointed out this issue in my outlook, as a major one. The gap of temporality between markets’ assumptions and the reality will become too wide. Slow vaccines adoption will postpone the full recovery. Nursing home staffs...
NYSE to Delist Chinese Telco Giants on U.S. Executive Order… The good timing to purchase for our thematic
ZTE was the big winner in this situation. Now, all US investors are out of these stocks (China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom), with their huge dividend yield the current technical levels, and the speed of the 5G deployment in China, Local investors could...
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