The Macro Blog
Our most recent publications:
Chinese GDP, the best is the enemy of the good?
As JP Morgan figures, the Chine GPD, published tomorrow morning, will be fantastic for sure... The question is: What will be the market reaction figures are "too" outstanding? JP Morgan's price goes south after the publication. Some rumors in China are leaking a...
IPOs are an Omen???
The title of our daily Global Macro Insight was today: Markets confusing Lower Credit Costs with No Credit Risks + IPOs are an Omen. Your scribe shares with you a chart that reminded him of his early years in the equity markets. The ETF IPO is handy, we didn't have it...
US health agencies call for pause of J&J vaccine rollout… the Timing and the Clowns
Bad news about side effects could derail vaccination policies... If you add the same issue officially highlighted by EMA with AstraZeneca vacinne+ The Brazilian study demonstrating the low efficiency of SINOVAC + The pandemic completely out of control in Brazil...
US Inflation… Chinese PPI = Worldwide CPI… Repeat after me!
U.S. consumer prices climbed in March by the most since 2012, adding to evidence of budding inflationary pressures as the economy reopens and demand strengthens... After the hugely inflationary Chinese PPI + the extraordinarily huge Chinese export figures, Inflation...
You should be concerned by the Liquidity Implosion…
In partnership with Quantilia, GATE Advisory developed a range of Quantamental risk metrics benefiting from my 25 years of experience in finance. Our liquidity risk metric is flashing red over the last weeks and hereafter, some current figures justifying the color......
Inflation will come from East!!!! Producer-price inflation accelerates to 4.4%, above estimates
China’s producer prices climbed the most since July 2018 as commodity costs surged, a worrying sign for policy makers seeking stable inflation and adding to global risks. The producer price index rose 4.4% in March from a year earlier after gaining 1.7% in February,...
Emerging country middle class is shrinking, the same in Developed economies… Equities are all time high in Occident… Market and Political turbulence are coming
The middle class in Emerging countries was the cash cow of the worldwide economy over the last decades. This portion of the emerging country population was the main positive catalyst determining the acceleration of global growth. An estimated 150 million slipped down...
Getting Back Pre-COVID GDP Levels – Smart chart 2020/2021 GDP shortfalls
The divergences are stark. India will end 2021 with a gross domestic product that’s 5.2% smaller than it would have been otherwise, according to forecasts by Bloomberg Economics. Indonesia’s output will be 9.2% smaller than its pre-crisis trend foretold. The U.S.?...
China looks to rein in lending to cool property boom
Chinese new home sales surged 133% in January and February this year, while property investment rose 38%. That demand helped push real estate loan growth up 14%, a seven-year high, over the same period China's medium-to-long-term consumer loans, comprised mainly of...
ARKX, not so Space Exploration than this…
ARK will launch ARKX the Space Exploration & Innovation ETF... I am an aerospace engineer and I was really shocked (but not surprised) regarding the stock selection... I ticked in red the - First, this ETF is a kind of Russian doll. The second weight is an ARK ETF...
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