Some extracts :
– On Friday morning, your scribe had shared, “Now, the optimal take-off zone seems to be around October 15, which leaves us with a few more complicated days ahead if the bond markets don’t calm down unless the CTAs (whose asymmetry is to the buy side) trigger the rebound today.” (GMI 29/09/2023)
– “In the short term, all that remains is the ‘Shutdown,’ and we estimate that a vote on a temporary package can be voted on Sunday.” (GMI 09/29/2023).
– As you’ll see from one of the following graphs, US real estate is one of the worst performers YTD, but a simple calculation puts the environment into perspective…
– The VIX and MOVE have reached technical resistance levels, and pessimism is at its peak when considering investor positioning.
– In conclusion:
- Manufacturing activity in China picks up again.
- Despite the World Bank’s downgrading, Asia remains the engine of global growth.
- September was a bad month for performance, while inflation showed signs of slowing without imploding the economy. We remain constructive on equities (US and China).