Some extracts :
- Yesterday, we noted the “disaster” that was this revision for Q2: instead of the unchanged 1.7% figure of the second estimate of Q2 GDP, the final figure was a disaster of 0.8%, a 9-sigma deviation from estimates… China has no reason to be ashamed of its statistics!!!!
- This revision is massive, but it doesn’t change the environment. The US economy is not in recession, and consumer spending is only slowing.
- In these markets without rules (cf. our GMI yesterday), your scribe would like to point out that the current positive correlation between oil prices and the USD is unusual. We have also noted that the futures curve is sinking further into backwardation. So, ….
- Your scribe has written and shared enough about the change in US policy towards China, not by choice but forced by facts and corporate pressure at a time when consumption in the US is not on an upward slope. This morning’s headline, which your scribe captured on the Bloomberg website, speaks for itself and confirms our positioning.
- But your scribe wants to emphasize one point. If we believe that India is a great country and that, thanks to the communication of the American media and investment banks, investors adore India without ever having set foot there, Goldman’s comments following their “Indian Tour” are eloquent and confirm our words:..
- We’ll return to our positioning on Monday, but we have been resilient in our Global Macro Quantamental approach, even if the latter was painful throughout September.