Some extracts :
- The three most important facts for China, which the Western media and analyses do not relay, are :
- The relaxation, or even disappearance, of the hukou.
- The institutionalization of financial flows following the launch of private pension funds in November 2022.
- State organization of financial aid for childcare and care of the elderly, as well as for children’s schooling.
- Ultimately, the FED’s inability to correctly predict inflation, and therefore the trajectory of its monetary policy, is matched only by the failure of economists and strategists to qualify the investment environment for years correctly.
- At the start of 2020, Covid was a mere flu, then inflation was temporary, only to anticipate a US recession as early as Q3 2023, accompanied by a rate cut…
- The problem is not with equities but with bonds. An asset allocator can be reassured by buying bonds above 10Y when he has no visibility on the central bank’s policy at its terminal rate…
- But your scribe mentions Switzerland to illustrate our Global Macro positioning correlated to a supply shock (see our End-Year Outlook 2023). Zurich has become one of Europe’s hottest real estate markets, with prices surpassing those of London and Paris, showing that local supply shortages can offset interest rate rises.